March Madness - Last Minute Tips

Finally, it’s time for the Madness to begin.  With March upon us and the tournament about to start, it’s time to bust out the brackets.

Let me just start off by saying, everyone that enters a bracket this year will have it busted. It’s inevitable.  Which is the most frustrating but yet one of the most exciting parts of March Madness.

This is simply just a survival guide filled with expectations, predictions, and a pump up for what is to come…

#1. Go With Star Power

College basketball is absolutely stacked with top tier talent, some of which is already being compared to some great NBA players. 

Arizona has a fusion of Shaq/ Karl-Anthony Towns type player in Deandre Ayton , who can hit the occasional 3-pointer (.364), free throws (.742), and is dominant around the rim (88% against man to man d). The 7’1" 260 pound freak of an athlete is the potential number one overall pick and has already been seen as a player with Hall of Fame talent. 

Duke may have the most talented starting 5 in the tournament with the most versatile player in the country in ACC Player of the year Marvin Bagley III.  The freshman is getting very high praise for his ability to crash the boards (11.5 RPG) and efficiency (.605 FG %)  He very well could be the next Kevin Garnett. Not to mention Wendell Carter Jr., who at 6’10" envisions Al Horford, plays very well next to Bagley.

Oklahoma has their own version of Steph Curry in Trae Young who can hit the 3 from just about anywhere on the court and can just as easily find the open man for an assist.  The Nation’s leading scorer (27.4 PPG) and in assists (8.8 APG), look for him to shine and take over games as he did early in the season.  Although going through Duke will be his toughest challenge all year.

            Michigan State’s back court of Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. rivals that of any backcourt in the NCAA tournament and could give Duke a run for their money.  They both play physical defense, with JJ Jr being the Big Ten Defensive player of the year, and can also hit the three (.396), very similar to a Jason Tatum and Chris Bosh tandem.

Big time players/coaches step up in big time games.  These stars are going to step up and could very well all have a shot on making the all-tournament team.

#2. Important Stats

1.     BPI over RPI over Seeding

a.     The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.  The top 5 teams in the BPI who have the best chance to win the title are:

1. Virginia (1)     (22.4%)

2. Villanova (1)  (21.5%)

3. Purdue (2)      (10.3%)

4. Duke (2)          (10.1%)

5. Cincinnati (2) (9.9%)

b.     Some interesting points to notice

1.  3 number 2 seeds rank in the top 5 for percentage to win the title

1.     Purdue (2)     (10.3%)

2.     Duke (2)         (10.1%)

3.     Cincinnati (2) (9.9%)

2. Xavier as a number 1 seed has a 1.7% chance of winning the title which ranks 10^th.

3. Kansas as a number 1 seed has a 3.9% chance of winning the title which ranks 8^th.

4. Other favorites poised for a deep run, Michigan State (2) (5.4%), Gonzaga (4) (2.5%), Michigan (3) (1.1%).

c.      The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) ranks teams upon the teams wins and losses and its strength of schedule. View these rankings as a final season ranking of teams when deciding on who to take. Top 5 teams in RPI are:

1.  Virginia (1)

2.  Villanova (1)

3.  Xavier (1)

4.  North Carolina (2)

5.  Kansas (1)

2.     Offensive and Defensive Balance

a.     The most successful teams in the NCAA tournament teams blend both an efficient defensive with a productive offensive.  Majority of Final Four and Elite Eight teams each season rank in the top 30 in both Offensive and Defensive balance.  Teams that get upset are usually lacking in one or the other.

b.     The top 30 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season:

1.  Villanova (1)       - 87.1 Points/Game. 70.9 Opp Points/Game.

2.  Gonzaga (4)        - 84.5 Points/Game. 67.1 Opp Points/Game

3.  Purdue (2)           - 81.1 Points/Game. 65.6 Opp Points/Game

4.  Duke (2)               - 84.7 Points/Game. 69.6 Opp Points/Game

5.  Michigan St. (2)  - 81.0 Points/Game. 64.8 Opp Points/Game

6.  Virginia (1)           - 67.5 Points/Game. 53.4 Opp Points/Game

7.  Kentucky (5)        - 76.7 Points/Game. 70.3 Opp Points/Game

3.     Free Throw %

a.     Free-throw shooting separates the contenders from the pretenders.  NCAA tournament games are often tight games with pressure coming down to the wire.

b.     The top 50 free-throw shooting percentages teams are:

1.  Xavier (1)              - .790%

2.  Villanova (1)         - .771%

3.  Butler (10)            - .771%

4.  West Virginia (5) - .766%

5.  Virginia (1)            - .758%

c.      Teams of Concern:

1.  Duke (2)               - .708%

2.  Kentucky (5)        - .693%

3.  Cincinnati (2)       - .688%

4.  Miami (6)             - .663%

5.  Michigan (3)        - .659%

#3. Designate a Cinderella Pick in Every Division to Ensure Sweet 16

1.     Since the field expanded in 2011, the No. 3 through 6 seeds have become much more vulnerable.  At least one No. 14 seed has upset a No. 3 seed in four of the last 5 years.  S.F. Austin has the best chance for an upset facing a cold Texas Tech team (7-5 over last 12).

2.     No number 13 seed knocked off a 4 seed last year but look at Marshall coming off a Conference USA championship has the best chance to be a Cinderella team with the upset of Wichita St.

3.     All four No. 5 seeds have advanced to the round of 32 just four times since 1985.  Since the NCAA expanded to 68 teams in 2011, No. 5 seeds are 16-12 (.571) against No.12 seeds.  With the field hosting some strong 12 seeds, look for these exciting matchups.

A.     Murray State is 12-0 over the last 12 games including a 68-51 win over Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship.  Jonathan Stark (21.8 PPG, 41% from 3, and Ohio Valley Conference player of the year) can take over the game against a strong West Virginia team.

B.     New Mexico State enters the tournament on a 10-2 tear and facing a very cold Clemson team (7-5 over last 12).  Zach Loften (19.8 PPG, 39% from the 3) leads the team in excellent defense as well.

C.     South Dakota State enters the tournament on a 19-1 skid and winners of 11 in a row.  They’re playing a very inconsistent Ohio State team who hasn’t been good away from home this year.  Mike Daum (23.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 85.6% on free throws, 42.1 from 3) could spoil brackets.

D.    Davidson is highly effective on offense and is one of the best teams in the country shooting free throws (.794%, 4^th in the country) and from 3 (.393, 26^th in the country). If it comes down to the wire against Kentucky, the ability to make the free ones will be the difference maker to complete the upset.

4.     No. 6 seeds are 12-16 (.429) against No. 11 seeds since 2011.  Potential killers are:

A.     St. Bonaventure enters the tournament on an 11-1 skid with that only loss coming against Davidson in the A10 championship.  Jaylen Adams (19.8 PPG, 47 percent from the 3-point line) and Matt Mobley(18.5 PPG, 39 percent from 3) comprise one of the best backcourts in the country.

B.     Loyola-Chicago boasts the 23^rd ranked defensive efficiency rating in the country and connects on 40% of their 3 pointers.  Miami is in serious trouble with this is the sleeper of the tournament.

C.     San Diego State finished off the season on 9 game win streak including a 79-74 and 90-73 wins over 21 ranked Nevada.  This is a strong team that always does well in the opening rounds especially going up against a worn Houston team.

5.     Look for Missouri to make a run with potential lottery pick Michael Porter Jr. to make a run after a strong performance in the SEC tournament and a team that is connecting on 40% of their 3 pointers all season.

#4. Hot and Cold Teams

A.    Hottest teams entering the tournament poised to make the deepest run in the tournament:

1.      Virginia (1) (22.4%) 11-2 over the last 12 including a 71-63 win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship.

2.      Cincinnati (2) (9.9%) 10-2 over last 12 including a 56-55 win over Houston in the American Conference Championship.

3.      Kansas (1) (3.9%) 9-3 over last 12 including an 81-70 over West Virginia in the Big 12 Championship.

4.      Tennessee (3) (1.0%) 10-2 over last 12, lost 77-72 to Kentucky in SEC Championship.

5.      Villanova (1) (21.5%) 9-3 over last 12 including a 76-66 overtime win over Providence in the Big East Championship.

6.      Michigan (3) (1.1%) 11-1 over last 12 including a 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship.

7.     Michigan State (2) (5.4%), 11-1 over last 12, lost 75-64 to Michigan in the Semi-finals of the Big Ten Conference tournament.

B.     Hottest teams looking to bust your bracket:

1.      Gonzaga (4) (2.5%) 12-0 over last 12 with a 74-54 win over BYU in the West Coast Conference Championship.

2.      St. Bonaventure (11) (0.0%) 11-1 over last 12 games.

3.      Loyola (Chi) (11) (0.0%) 11-1 over last 12 with a 65 -49 win over Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship.

4.      New Mexico State (12) (0.0%) 10-2 over last 12 with a 72-58 win over Grand Canyon in the WAC Conference Championship.

5.      South Dakota State (12) (0.0%) 11-1 over last 12 with a 97-87 win over South Dakota in the Summit League Championship.

C.     Coldest teams to stay away from:

1.     Oklahoma (10) - 3-9 over last 12 games including 6 straight losses in the Big 12.

2.     Clemson (5)      - 7-5 over last 12 with all 7 wins coming against bottom tier ACC teams.

3.     Texas Tech (3)  - 7-5 over last 12 including 4 straight losses then 2 close wins over TCU and Texas.

4.     Creighton (8)    - 6-6 over last 12 with two straight losses entering the tournament against Marquette and Providence.

5.     Auburn (4)        - 7-5 over last 12 with wins over Kentucky and Alabama but an early exit from the SEC tournament with an 81-63 loss to Alabama.