Friday, May 4, 2018

The New York Yankees Made Baseball Great Again

When the New York Yankees traded for 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton this past offseason, he joined forces with AL MVP runner up and AL Rookie of the Year, Aaron Judge. With apologies to other great Bronx Bombers and other bash brothers, this addition quite possibly created the most powerful pair in the history of the MLB.  
Stanton and Judge are both power forwards playing the game of baseball. Stanton standing at 6-6 245lbs and his younger twin in Judge standing at 6-7 282, the tallest MLB hitter ever, combine for some of the most absolute bombs you’ll ever witness. New York’s new twin towers have high expectations upon them for contention for the American League MVP and home run king.
Coming with Stanton’s larger than life figure is his larger than life record contract.  In 2015, Stanton signed the time largest contract in the history of professional sports, giving claim to the two largest contracted players to ever play baseball. No. 2 being that of Alex Rodriguez $275 million dollar price tag from 2008-2017.   Thankfully Judge is still in his rookie contract of $622K per year, because he could very well be the next highest contracted MLB player.
In 2019 alone, Stanton is due to make $25 million, which would jeopardize the team’s stated intent to have a 2018 payroll that is under the new luxury tax threshold of $197 million. As well as keeping the duo together for more than just the 2018 season.
We will be watching intently, at the next great Yankee duo trying to break Babe Ruth’s one time record of 60 home runs in a season. If the pair can stay healthy for a full year, it’s quite possible to see the pair hit north of 50 homeruns and topping out in the 60s and who knows - 70 isn’t out of the picture.

In 2017, the duo of Stanton and Judge combined for 111 homeruns (Stanton 59 & Judge 52). The only other duo to combine for more home runs in a single season? The 1961 Bronx Bombers of Mickey Mantle (54) and Roger Maris (61), who famously hit homerun number 61 in game 162.  

*notes alleged or confirmed steroid usage.

Not only do the new Bronx Bombers hit a lot of homers, they hit them harder and farther than anyone in the MLB.  Here is a look at the highest exit velocity in 2017. Judge and Stanton combine for 19 of the first 24 hardest hit pitches with the furthest being a 495ft bomb from Judge.
Adding into the mix of power that should result in even more dingers, is 3rd year Yankee catcher Gary Sanchez. After appearing in 53 games in 2016 and hitting 20 homeruns, expectations were high for Sanchez to perform in his first full season.  Sanchez responded to his hot rookie start by hitting 33 homeruns and slugging at a .531 clip in only 123 games.
Meanwhile, the Yankees best hitter of the 2018 season has been shortstop Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius has opened up the 2018 season by hitting at a .340 avg clip and crushing a league leading 10 homeruns and 30 RBI’s at the end April.  Leading the Yankees to the MLB’s top scoring offense (6 RPG) homeruns, (42) and slugging (.451).
The Yankees have the power to hit the most homeruns in a season by a team if the core players remain healthy and play to their expected capabilities.  The current record of 264 is held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners where 6 players hit at least 20 homeruns with another famous bash brother duo of Ken Griffey, Jr. (56) and Jay Buhner (40) combing for 96 homeruns. 9 players from the Mariners were in double digits including a young shortstop, Alex Rodriguez.
The Yankees starting lineup from 2017 combined to hit 241 homeruns last season, with 9 players hitting into double digits.  With General Manager, Brian Cashman replacing DH Matt Holiday’s 19 homeruns and adding Stanton potential to hit north of 50 as the DH, you’re looking at a new season total of potentially into the 270 range. Not to mention the young core of Gregorius, Sanchez, Judge, and Greg Bird developing into their primes, there’s going to be a lot of dingers hit in the Bronx.
With all this great power, comes great swing and misses.  Over the course of Judge’s rookie year, he lead the league in strikeouts with 208, recorded a strike out in a MLB record 37 games in a row, and struck out at an alarming 38% of his at bats.  Prior to Stanton arriving in the Big Apple, Stanton never recorded a 5 strikeout game, 1 week into the season he has already recorded 2 and received one hell of a bad reception from those great Yankees fans.  

Chicks dig the long ball, expect Yankee games to be a hot spot for women in the stands.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

March Madness - Last Minute Tips


Finally, it’s time for the Madness to begin.  With March upon us and the tournament about to start, it’s time to bust out the brackets.
Let me just start off by saying, everyone that enters a bracket this year will have it busted. It’s inevitable.  Which is the most frustrating but yet one of the most exciting parts of March Madness.
This is simply just a survival guide filled with expectations, predictions, and a pump up for what is to come…

#1. Go With Star Power
College basketball is absolutely stacked with top tier talent, some of which is already being compared to some great NBA players. 
Arizona has a fusion of Shaq/ Karl-Anthony Towns type player in Deandre Ayton , who can hit the occasional 3-pointer (.364), free throws (.742), and is dominant around the rim (88% against man to man d). The 7’1" 260 pound freak of an athlete is the potential number one overall pick and has already been seen as a player with Hall of Fame talent. 
Duke may have the most talented starting 5 in the tournament with the most versatile player in the country in ACC Player of the year Marvin Bagley III.  The freshman is getting very high praise for his ability to crash the boards (11.5 RPG) and efficiency (.605 FG %)  He very well could be the next Kevin Garnett. Not to mention Wendell Carter Jr., who at 6’10" envisions Al Horford, plays very well next to Bagley.
Oklahoma has their own version of Steph Curry in Trae Young who can hit the 3 from just about anywhere on the court and can just as easily find the open man for an assist.  The Nation’s leading scorer (27.4 PPG) and in assists (8.8 APG), look for him to shine and take over games as he did early in the season.  Although going through Duke will be his toughest challenge all year.
            Michigan State’s back court of Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. rivals that of any backcourt in the NCAA tournament and could give Duke a run for their money.  They both play physical defense, with JJ Jr being the Big Ten Defensive player of the year, and can also hit the three (.396), very similar to a Jason Tatum and Chris Bosh tandem.
Big time players/coaches step up in big time games.  These stars are going to step up and could very well all have a shot on making the all-tournament team.
#2. Important Stats
1.     BPI over RPI over Seeding
a.     The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.  The top 5 teams in the BPI who have the best chance to win the title are:
1. Virginia (1)     (22.4%)
2. Villanova (1)  (21.5%)
3. Purdue (2)      (10.3%)
4. Duke (2)          (10.1%)
5. Cincinnati (2) (9.9%)
b.     Some interesting points to notice
1.  3 number 2 seeds rank in the top 5 for percentage to win the title
1.     Purdue (2)     (10.3%)
2.     Duke (2)         (10.1%)
3.     Cincinnati (2) (9.9%)
2. Xavier as a number 1 seed has a 1.7% chance of winning the title which ranks 10th.
3. Kansas as a number 1 seed has a 3.9% chance of winning the title which ranks 8th.
4. Other favorites poised for a deep run, Michigan State (2) (5.4%), Gonzaga (4) (2.5%), Michigan (3) (1.1%).
c.      The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) ranks teams upon the teams wins and losses and its strength of schedule. View these rankings as a final season ranking of teams when deciding on who to take. Top 5 teams in RPI are:
1.  Virginia (1)
2.  Villanova (1)
3.  Xavier (1)
4.  North Carolina (2)
5.  Kansas (1)

2.     Offensive and Defensive Balance
a.     The most successful teams in the NCAA tournament teams blend both an efficient defensive with a productive offensive.  Majority of Final Four and Elite Eight teams each season rank in the top 30 in both Offensive and Defensive balance.  Teams that get upset are usually lacking in one or the other.
b.     The top 30 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season:
1.  Villanova (1)       - 87.1 Points/Game. 70.9 Opp Points/Game.
2.  Gonzaga (4)        - 84.5 Points/Game. 67.1 Opp Points/Game
3.  Purdue (2)           - 81.1 Points/Game. 65.6 Opp Points/Game
4.  Duke (2)               - 84.7 Points/Game. 69.6 Opp Points/Game
5.  Michigan St. (2)  - 81.0 Points/Game. 64.8 Opp Points/Game
6.  Virginia (1)           - 67.5 Points/Game. 53.4 Opp Points/Game
7.  Kentucky (5)        - 76.7 Points/Game. 70.3 Opp Points/Game
3.     Free Throw %
a.     Free-throw shooting separates the contenders from the pretenders.  NCAA tournament games are often tight games with pressure coming down to the wire.
b.     The top 50 free-throw shooting percentages teams are:
1.  Xavier (1)              - .790%
2.  Villanova (1)         - .771%
3.  Butler (10)            - .771%
4.  West Virginia (5) - .766%
5.  Virginia (1)            - .758%
c.      Teams of Concern:
1.  Duke (2)               - .708%
2.  Kentucky (5)        - .693%
3.  Cincinnati (2)       - .688%
4.  Miami (6)             - .663%
5.  Michigan (3)        - .659%
#3. Designate a Cinderella Pick in Every Division to Ensure Sweet 16
1.     Since the field expanded in 2011, the No. 3 through 6 seeds have become much more vulnerable.  At least one No. 14 seed has upset a No. 3 seed in four of the last 5 years.  S.F. Austin has the best chance for an upset facing a cold Texas Tech team (7-5 over last 12).
2.     No number 13 seed knocked off a 4 seed last year but look at Marshall coming off a Conference USA championship has the best chance to be a Cinderella team with the upset of Wichita St.
3.     All four No. 5 seeds have advanced to the round of 32 just four times since 1985.  Since the NCAA expanded to 68 teams in 2011, No. 5 seeds are 16-12 (.571) against No.12 seeds.  With the field hosting some strong 12 seeds, look for these exciting matchups.
A.     Murray State is 12-0 over the last 12 games including a 68-51 win over Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship.  Jonathan Stark (21.8 PPG, 41% from 3, and Ohio Valley Conference player of the year) can take over the game against a strong West Virginia team.
B.     New Mexico State enters the tournament on a 10-2 tear and facing a very cold Clemson team (7-5 over last 12).  Zach Loften (19.8 PPG, 39% from the 3) leads the team in excellent defense as well.
C.     South Dakota State enters the tournament on a 19-1 skid and winners of 11 in a row.  They’re playing a very inconsistent Ohio State team who hasn’t been good away from home this year.  Mike Daum (23.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 85.6% on free throws, 42.1 from 3) could spoil brackets.
D.    Davidson is highly effective on offense and is one of the best teams in the country shooting free throws (.794%, 4th in the country) and from 3 (.393, 26th in the country). If it comes down to the wire against Kentucky, the ability to make the free ones will be the difference maker to complete the upset.
4.     No. 6 seeds are 12-16 (.429) against No. 11 seeds since 2011.  Potential killers are:
A.     St. Bonaventure enters the tournament on an 11-1 skid with that only loss coming against Davidson in the A10 championship.  Jaylen Adams (19.8 PPG, 47 percent from the 3-point line) and Matt Mobley(18.5 PPG, 39 percent from 3) comprise one of the best backcourts in the country.
B.     Loyola-Chicago boasts the 23rd ranked defensive efficiency rating in the country and connects on 40% of their 3 pointers.  Miami is in serious trouble with this is the sleeper of the tournament.
C.     San Diego State finished off the season on 9 game win streak including a 79-74 and 90-73 wins over 21 ranked Nevada.  This is a strong team that always does well in the opening rounds especially going up against a worn Houston team.
5.     Look for Missouri to make a run with potential lottery pick Michael Porter Jr. to make a run after a strong performance in the SEC tournament and a team that is connecting on 40% of their 3 pointers all season.

#4. Hot and Cold Teams
A.    Hottest teams entering the tournament poised to make the deepest run in the tournament:
1.      Virginia (1) (22.4%) 11-2 over the last 12 including a 71-63 win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship.
2.      Cincinnati (2) (9.9%) 10-2 over last 12 including a 56-55 win over Houston in the American Conference Championship.
3.      Kansas (1) (3.9%) 9-3 over last 12 including an 81-70 over West Virginia in the Big 12 Championship.
4.      Tennessee (3) (1.0%) 10-2 over last 12, lost 77-72 to Kentucky in SEC Championship.
5.      Villanova (1) (21.5%) 9-3 over last 12 including a 76-66 overtime win over Providence in the Big East Championship.
6.      Michigan (3) (1.1%) 11-1 over last 12 including a 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship.
7.     Michigan State (2) (5.4%), 11-1 over last 12, lost 75-64 to Michigan in the Semi-finals of the Big Ten Conference tournament.
B.     Hottest teams looking to bust your bracket:
1.      Gonzaga (4) (2.5%) 12-0 over last 12 with a 74-54 win over BYU in the West Coast Conference Championship.
2.      St. Bonaventure (11) (0.0%) 11-1 over last 12 games.
3.      Loyola (Chi) (11) (0.0%) 11-1 over last 12 with a 65 -49 win over Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship.
4.      New Mexico State (12) (0.0%) 10-2 over last 12 with a 72-58 win over Grand Canyon in the WAC Conference Championship.
5.      South Dakota State (12) (0.0%) 11-1 over last 12 with a 97-87 win over South Dakota in the Summit League Championship.
C.     Coldest teams to stay away from:
1.     Oklahoma (10) - 3-9 over last 12 games including 6 straight losses in the Big 12.
2.     Clemson (5)      - 7-5 over last 12 with all 7 wins coming against bottom tier ACC teams.
3.     Texas Tech (3)  - 7-5 over last 12 including 4 straight losses then 2 close wins over TCU and Texas.
4.     Creighton (8)    - 6-6 over last 12 with two straight losses entering the tournament against Marquette and Providence.
5.     Auburn (4)        - 7-5 over last 12 with wins over Kentucky and Alabama but an early exit from the SEC tournament with an 81-63 loss to Alabama.